In October, we talked about how our produce flies south for the winter. It’s predictable, reliable and consistent. But, there is more to it than that. Mother Nature, the winter, and the food supply do not always play nicely together. Storms such as hurricanes and typhoons happen primarily in the northern hemisphere during the winter, and they can wreak havoc on the food supply. Hurricane Matthew caused significant damage to the sweet potato and green bean crops in North Carolina. Now we might think, “Big deal, what does that have to do with us way out here?”  Well, when you apply the law of supply and demand, it has a lot to do with us on the West Coast.

The demand for sweet potatoes and green beans doesn’t drop just because of the hurricane. The people who want those products, still want those products. So the East Coast market simply goes shopping out west. Less product, regular demand, higher prices. That’s the formula. Fortunately, this time, hurricane Matthew didn’t damage the tomato or orange crops in Florida.

But rest assured every winter, predictably and reliably, there will be some other hiccup in the supply chain. Last year it was unseasonably warm in the Arizona growing area and it caused some problems with lettuce. Unseasonably warm? How on earth is that a problem for lettuce?  The variety planted in that region for that time of year has a lower temperature threshold. The crop was lost, and a gap in supply resulted until the right crop for the temperatures could be planted and grown.

Two years ago, the pork industry found itself in a pickle with a virus resulting in Early Mortality Syndrome, nearly wiping out the pork supply. Remember when bacon prices skyrocketed (the horror)? It took nearly a year to replenish the supply chain with healthy pork products, then the prices stabilized. Every winter, there are road and mountain pass closures giving your grocers and suppliers their annual seasonal supply headaches. Overall in the winter, freezes are probably the most common challenge we experience. Some of your winter growing regions will experience “pocket freezes” and we’ll see a whole crop of something get wiped out. There will be other curveballs we wouldn’t normally see thrown at us. And on the consumer side, the reasons for such crazy price fluctuations are not always seen. When this happens in the winter, the demand still reigns but the available supply, and the ability to recover from an interruption event, is greatly reduced.

This year, Mother Nature has already dealt a strange blow to the crab industry. The Opilio crab harvest, known better as snow crab, was closed two weeks after it opened. Not that there was a shortage of crab, there was plenty of “biomass,” and all within the right sizing. It’s just that there weren’t enough female crabs to continue the harvest. The decision was made to give the boy and girl crabs more time to make more girl crabs, and keep the sustainability viable. Coincidentally, the Dungeness crab harvest was drawn short as well. So the demand for crab will move to other species, and regions. High demand, low supply, equals higher price. Those of us who desire crab for the holiday dinner, are going to have a bit of a challenge this year.

There is always something potentially tripping up the supply chain. It seems to get more volatile and challenging during the winter. The law of supply and demand weighs heavier on us in the winter. In the Northwest we are blessed with four wonderful seasons, and could be thankful that we don’t have to deal directly with things like hurricanes and other calamities. But we are not immune from the results of these events. The good news is, winter always ends, and spring is on its way. It’s predictable, reliable and consistent.

Food for thought

Now, hunker down and brew up a spiced wine or hot cocoa, and dig out that winter sweater you like so much. It’s cute on you.

Chris Patterson is the Director of Business Solutions at Food Services of America.  He is a 30 year veteran of the hospitality and restaurant industry and has conducted more than 700 trainings, seminars, and consulting sessions with Inland Northwest operators.